Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
